This repository contains the source data for the case study presented in "An Iterative Algorithm for Optimizing COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies Considering Unknown Supply" (manuscript under review).
The csv File "summaryDeaths.csv" contains the simulated COVID-19 caused deaths for each of the vaccination strategy fed into the model. The column-headers describe the strategy in batch notation (e.g. "EH" refers to: first batch to the elderly, second batch to the healthcare workers) which can be compared to each other an to the baseline scenario "no batches" without vaccinations. The index-column contains the corresponding simulation date. The values themselves show sample means of 10 Monte-Carlo simulation runs.
As specified in the manuscript, the optimized sequentially adds batches to the most successful prior strategy (cumulative number of deaths). Therefore, e.g. "E" was fixed as initial batch after the first iteration round.
summaryConfirmedCases.csv, summaryHospital.csv, summaryICU.csv
These files show the corresponing simulation outcome (new confirmed cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions) for the same optimization experiment, i.e. the same target measure "deaths". In particular the numbers for the new confirmed cases show, that the optimal strategy for reducing deaths will not be optimal for reducing cases.